Part of me wants to get some long lingering thoughts on Iraq out of my head today, but after yesterday’s speech and all the attendant and generally expected reactions I feel ever more frustrated and annoyed. As it is, the admittedly all-too-obvious headline I was going to use in part has already been done via Tim F. at Balloon Juice today so probably that’s a good thing.
Instead I found myself thinking about something that’s neither surprising nor satisfying considering I live in a democratic republic and not a direct democracy. Next year’s elections are in all likelihood going to be seen as the most heavily contested and considered to be vitally important in some time, even allowing for all the intense rhetoric that elections inevitably bring. (In comparison to something like 1996, for instance, there’s no contest, and even 2004 seems a bit tame now.) There are plenty of reasons why this is the case but that can and should be argued elsewhere. For myself, though, I’ve realized that unless I move somewhere within the next year and a half — a very unlikely possibility, though you never know — that my vote simply will not matter.
This may seem like stating the blatantly obvious — again, it’s a republic, not a democracy. Yet due to a combination of factors along with general historical accident, here’s what the likely situation is going to be come November 2008, barring something radically unusual (hopefully not tragically so):
- The presidency — the big one, of course. However, a GOP candidate has not won in California since the elder Bush in 1988. Even in 2004, with antipathy towards the younger Bush running high but not as high as it would later and Kerry proving to be a terribly uncharismatic figure, the latter still carried California 55 to 45 percent. This is absolutely no guarantee that whoever wins in the GOP primaries will not end up carrying the state — the writers on this polling geek site suggest that the issue of illegal immigration could complicate things, though I have my strong doubts about that. At this point I’ve no reason to doubt a Democratic candidate will win the state by a comfortable margin, while my local precinct in OC will go for the GOP candidate equally comfortably if not more so.
- The senatorial seats — out of contention, barring personal misfortune on the part of the current officeholders. Senator Feinstein was reelected in 2006, Senator Boxer runs again in 2010.
- My local representative in the House — again, assuming no personal misfortune, that would be Dana Rohrabacher in the 46th district, who won in 2006 59 to 36 percent, and who I will vote against as I have always done since moving to the district. The likelihood of an upset is incredibly slim.
Meantime there’s no gubernatorial race, as Arnie won reelection last year. So the presidency and the House aside, this leaves me having to decide on state and local issues for the most part, even while the political campaigning for next year has already long been in overdrive, while still being months away from whatever the first contests that elect delegates for the conventions will be.
This leaves me in a strange looking-glass scenario — I am still determining how best my energies will be spent next year, and it’s certainly in the interest of the country that the candidates of either major party in the presidential election be the best possible in the field to serve the country as a whole, however beholden to maintaining a general status quo they will be regardless. If one of them is an obvious disaster then the election will merely confirm it, if both are then the country is stuck with deciding the lesser of two evils, a situation I suspect will be the one that we all face in the end. This potentially makes the California primary the most important election I could participate in next year, but as the current primary system is closed rather than open and I am registered with no party, I must observe and encourage rather than help directly decide.
None of which is to sound like I am discouraged from voting — far from it. Neither does it mean that I am halted from contributing time and money for any particular candidate should I so decide. But it also means that much of the next fifteen months’ activity will likely be somewhat academic to me. I’m honestly not too sure how I feel about that right now, but it’s a position likely shared by many others, who will speak and act as they do but otherwise must mostly watch and wait.






August 23, 2007 at 9:53 pm
Yup, the anarchists were right – doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always gets in.
X
August 23, 2007 at 10:11 pm
All too true…
August 23, 2007 at 10:41 pm
*waves from OC*
I hear ya. I had to change my registration just to vote in the last primary back in ’04. Of course by that time it was not a hard choice to make all things considered (and sadly we got saddled with Kerry).
August 23, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Oh, heya Dreggas, cool to see you here! Yeah, I’ve muttered earlier in this blog about why I’m not registered with a party and haven’t been. Registering for a primary is an idea, true, but I’d rather not be on a party mailing list from then on…
August 23, 2007 at 10:57 pm
Ned,
Truthfully I don’t get a lot of party junk mail and my apt complex is nice enough to have a nice big trash bin right next to where our mail boxes are LOL.
-D
August 23, 2007 at 11:39 pm
Now this is what I call fine architectural design.
August 23, 2007 at 11:58 pm
Eh, actually it’s just a very large trash can and I think they just got tired of people leaving the junk mail on top of the mail boxes to be blown around on the ground. Of course that is almost expected here in Santa Ana.
August 24, 2007 at 2:12 am
Regrettably so. Whereabouts in the city are you again? I’m down in Costa Mesa.
August 24, 2007 at 2:28 am
I get so tired of defending my contrarianism, and reading your post reminds me of what’s at stake for me in Florida (zilch in my Senate and local House races; Romney, Clinton, et al kissing Cuban exile ass). Really, the more you know the more powerless you feel.
August 24, 2007 at 2:31 am
Well, powerless isn’t the same as keeping silent. It just means being clear with yourself about what you can do with your vote versus what can be done in terms of discussion, debate, etc. A fine distinction but nonetheless important.
August 24, 2007 at 3:26 pm
I’m up off the 55 near tustin and 17th. Pretty much on the border of Tustin and SA.
August 24, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Oh right, the empty badlands. But at least you have some malls.
August 24, 2007 at 3:38 pm
heh,
well I’m within range of The Block which is far better than the Main Place at least. Crappy part with the Main Place is how early it closes. Being from the east coast where malls are open until at least 10 it’s strange seeing them close at 6
August 24, 2007 at 4:23 pm
At six? What kind of insanity is that.
What I will forever love about the Block is of course its cameo appearance at the end of the Borat movie. Crazy thing was that my friends and I were thinking about going to the theater there for opening night — if only we had!
August 24, 2007 at 4:26 pm
I like the block more than most of the other “malls” in the area simply because it has more stores, even if some are overpriced. Being that it has Hot Topic I can easily get decent clothing and decent music without going to the Virgin there and being raped like a virgin by their insane prices.
August 24, 2007 at 4:27 pm
If Virgin goes the Tower route I’ll look forward to picking through their stock without shame.
August 24, 2007 at 4:35 pm
Agreed. Tower had way better prices for the same music than Virgin does. Hell any CD store has better prices at this point. I wanted to pick up a Skinny Puppy compilation and they wanted 25 for it. Was even checking out some classic metal that was going for 19! I did buy some music that day. 60 got me 3 CD’s *shakes head*. Then again they keep offering “discounts” so in the end you end up paying what you’d pay elsewhere after the discount.
August 24, 2007 at 4:39 pm
Yeah, all evens out in the wash but it all sucks. Most of my CD purchases these days are either from Amoeba’s brilliant clearance bin (all sorts of weird things end up there) or online directly from the artists/labels and/or at their shows. Then there are other resources but I’m sure we all know about those without having to spell them out…
August 24, 2007 at 4:52 pm
I Know Nothing.
August 24, 2007 at 4:53 pm
I have considered going to amoeba when I can get there. I have also found some good stuff at the electric chair. Fortunately there’s little digging since the store itself caters to the alt crowd.
August 24, 2007 at 4:54 pm
Therein the problem — damn all these knowledgeable hipsters!
I love how we’ve completely sidetracked the post in question. Disaster! Elections! (Now let’s get all the Balloon Juice people over here, so we can all talk once again about how Darrell likes pie.)
August 24, 2007 at 5:05 pm
ROFLMAO.
Yeah. It’s one of those things. Then again it’s friday, I just got my quarterly bonus so when I get out of work it’s off to guitar center to pick up a new DJ deck and then to fry’s to replace my DVD burner.
November 21, 2007 at 8:49 pm
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